Rotarians Rick and Emily Francona visited Moldova in 2015 as part of a Rotary Friendship Exchange (RFE) between District 5110 and District 2241. In addition to the personal connections they established there, they also gained some cultural, religious, and geopolitical insights into this former Soviet republic's development since the end of the Cold War. This article by CNN military analyst Rick offers some insights into recent events in that region, as do some of the photos from that trip.
Russian “diplomats” expelled from Moldova
Rick Francona
CNN Military Analyst
June 15, 2017
According to a recent Reuters article, the Moldovan government expelled five Russian embassy officials, following accusations from the Moldovan intelligence service that the “diplomats” are in fact officers of the Russian military intelligence organization more commonly known by its Russian initials GRU. The five Russians are alleged to have recruited Moldovan nationals in the Gagauzia* autonomous region (noted in red on the map) of the country to fight in eastern Ukraine on the side of pro-Russian separatists.
No one should find this surprising. Moldova is an interesting place – a former Soviet republic wedged between the current countries of Ukraine to the east and south, and Romania to the west. Its politics are definitely fragmented and all over the map. I happened to be in Moldova during the local elections in 2015 – the feelings of the various factions were passionately expressed.
There are some citizens who support the existence of Moldova as an independent republic (the current situation), others who favor a union with Romania, and a small minority outside of the autonomous regions who favor reintegration with the Russian Federation. The first two are doable, but any reunion with the Russian Federation would be difficult, given the sizable part of Ukraine between the two countries.
The Russian attempts—obviously successful—to recruit nationals from Gagauzia are interesting. I wonder what was offered in return for dangerous service in a militia fighting beside pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
There is no doubt that the residents of Gagauzia are pro-Russian—it is evident in every election. They favor closer ties with the Russian Federation, and have declared that if Moldova seeks membership in the European Union (EU), they would opt for independence. Whether or not the government in Chișinău would be amenable to such an option is debatable.
The Russians are also meddling in Transnistria in eastern Moldova, the country’s other autonomous region. Transnistria hosts a contingent of Russian soldiers posted to the region as “peacekeepers” under an agreement between Russia and Moldova. It is a fig leaf to maintain a presence in yet another pro-Russian enclave in a country that was once part of the Soviet Union.
The Russians will continue to stir the pot here as they are doing in Ukraine. Open hostilities have not been seen since 1992, but any effort by the Moldovan government to join the EU, or Russian President Vladimir Putin’s worst nightmare, NATO, could spark a Ukraine-like schism in the country. Of course, Gagauzia has no contiguous border with Russia, mitigating such an uprising.
Keep an eye on Moldova—this is not over. The expulsion of the Russian military intelligence officers treats a symptom, not the underlying disease.
* The origin of the Gagauz people is not exactly clear. Some believe them to ethnic Turks, others believe them to be ethnic Bulgars.
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